The U.S. Senate Race and Everything You Should Know
What is exactly going on?
Of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, 34 are on the ballot for the 2024 election. Of the 34 seats up for election, 23 have been rated as safe for the incumbent. Therefore, control of the Senate falls upon the election results of 11 Senate seats.
Print Story by: Emma McBride
Animation by: Abby Miller
Senator Photos by: Congress.gov
Arizona
Arizona has had Kyrsten Sinema, a left-leaning independent senator, in the seat since 2019. She has chosen not to run for reelection in this election cycle. Ruben Gallego is running for the Democratic Party, and Kari Lake is running for the Republican Party. The 2024 Consensus projects the state will stay democratic and elect Gallego.
Florida
Incumbent Rick Scott of the Republican party is running for reelection against Debbie Maucarsel-Powell of the Democratic party. The State of Florida is projected to uphold its Republican label and reelect Scott.
Maryland
Ben Cardin has served Maryland as a Democratic senator for 17 years but has chosen not to run for reelection this cycle. Angela Brooks is running to represent the Democratic party, and Larry Hogan is representing the Republican party. Also, Brooks is projected to keep Maryland a Democratic state in this election.
Michigan
Michigan has been served by Debbie Stabenow, a Democratic senator since 2001, and has chosen not to run for reelection this cycle. Elissa Slotkin of the Democratic Party is running against Mike Rogers of the Republican Party for the open seat. Slotkin is projected to keep Michigan on the Democratic course on November 5th.
Montana
Jon Tester has been the Democratic senator serving Montana for the past 14 years. He will be running for his 4th term in the Senate against Republican Tim Sheehy. Sheehy is projected to flip the state from Democratic to Republican in this election.
Nevada
Democratic Incumbent Jacky Rosen of Nevada is projected to win for her 2nd term against Republican Sam Brown in November.
Ohio
Democratic Incumbent Sherrod Brown is running for his 4th term representing Ohio in the Senate against Republican Bernie Moreno. According to the 2024 Consensus, this is the only seat in the Senate that will be a toss-up, which means there is no projection for either one to win. “Ohio is one where you have a Democrat running for reelection against a Republican,” said Dr. Brent Curry, Political Science Professor at Georgia Southern University. “I think there is a decent amount of affection amongst several people who now go Republican because of the style of the Democrat.”
Pennsylvania
Incumbent Bob Casey, of the Democratic party, is up for reelection for his fourth term in the Senate. He is running against David McCormick, of the Republican party. Casey is projected to keep the state of Pennsylvania Democratic in this election.
Texas
Republican Incumbent Ted Cruz is running for his 3rd term in the Senate against Democrat Colin Allred. Cruz is projected to keep Texas aligned with its Republican roots in the election and win the seat.
Wisconsin
Democratic Incumbent Tammy Baldwin is up for re-election for her 3rd term against Republican Eric Hovde. Baldwin is projected to beat Eric Hovde and keep Wisconsin Democratic.
West Virginia
West Virginia has been served by left-leaning independent Senator Joe Manchin for 13 years. Manchin has chosen not to run for reelection this cycle. Republican candidate Jim Justice is projected to beat Democratic candidate Glenn Elliot and flip West Virginia Republicans in this election. “I think that because of the polling in West Virginia, the Senate seat will flip,” said Joshua Kennedy, an associate professor of Political Science at Georgia Southern University. “The democratic, well-independent senator that caucuses with the Democrats is leaving, and the republican candidate is very popular.”
Why the U.S. Senate important podcast
Podcast by: Mya Taylor
What is control?
Control of the Senate depends on which political party has more members within the Senate. Whichever party has more senators in Congress becomes the majority. Whichever party has fewer senators in Congress becomes the minority. Control of the Senate matters most to the President of the United States. As the President tries to enact bills or laws, they must pass through the Senate. It is in the President's favor if the majority in the Senate is aligned with his political party. If the Senate majority has a different political party from the acting president, they may make it difficult for bills to get passed or make it through the Senate. “There are many people that believe the senate is almost as important as the presidency because they can prevent anything the president,” said Bruce Mallard, former Political science Professor at Savannah State University. “You hear people say It’s great to have the white house, but we also need the House and the Senate.”
Past Senate Races
PKG by Brianna Brown
Who has the control?
As of the last election cycle (2022), the Democrats have held the majority in the Senate with 51 acting senators. Republicans have held the minority in the Senate with 49 acting senators. Although Independent representatives are in their 3rd political party when in the Senate, they must choose a party to side with, in this case, 4 out of the 51 democrats that make up the majority identify as left-leaning independents. This majority has been fortunate to President Joe Biden of the Democratic party. “I know the democrats are gaining a few more seats in the Senate,” said Max Moriena, a political science student at Georgia Southern University. “I think they want to gain more seats for a more secure majority against the Republicans.”
Can it be flipped?
A “flip” in the Senate is a change within the party that holds the majority and minority. Every two years during election cycles, the question arises: Will the Senate be flipped? And what would it look like if flipped?
Whether a flip in this current election is a good or bad thing is reliant on the 2024 Presidential election. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, then it would be in her favor to have a Democratic Senate majority. If former President Donald Trump gets reelected, it would be in his favor to have a Republican Senate majority. “Let’s say Kamala Harris does get elected as president. I feel like they are going to make it hard for her in office if the senate does get flipped,” said political science student Kayla Piere-Paum. “I feel like it is just going to be hard for a lot of things to get changed.”
According to the 2024 Consensus, it is projected that there will be a majority flip in this election, and the majority will become the Republican Party.
Graph by: Abby Miller
Explanation of the Graph
The graph shows the two states that are projected to switch parties when voting for the Senate in the 2024 election. The Republican party is projected to take over each state, according to 538.